o:38297 FISKALNA REFORMA U CRNOJ GORI 2024. GODINE – DA LI ĆE OVOGA PUTA BITI DRUGAČIJE? FISCAL REFORM IN MONTENEGRO IN 2024 – WILL IT BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME? sr Apstrakt: Crna Gora je tokom 2024. godine sprovela radikalnu fiskalnu reformu – minimalna penzija povećana je sa nepunih 300 evra na 450 evra, minimalna neto zarada povećana je sa 450 evra na 600 i 800 evra mesečno u zavisnosti od stručne spreme, dok je stopa penzijskih doprinosa prepolovljena sa 20,5% na 10% bruto zarade. U ovome radu sugerišemo da će, suprotno tvrdnjama Vlade, reforma ugroziti stabilnost javnih finansija i dovesti do rasta budžetskog deficita. Takođe, objašnjavamo da će mogućnosti za povećanje konkurentnosti domaće privrede biti ograničene usled visokog povećanja minimalne zarade, dok će visoko povećanje minimalne penzije stvoriti rizike za funkcionisanje penzijskog sistema i socijalne zaštite u narednim godinama. Ukazujemo da su slabosti i nedostaci reforme, poput izostanka adekvatnih kompenzatornih mera za povećanja budžetskih prihoda, bili ex-ante uočljivi u Vladinoj Fiskalnoj strategiji. Međutim, nepostojanje nezavisnog Fiskalnog saveta u Crnoj Gori olakšalo je usvajanje ove kontroverzne reforme. Abstract: In 2024, Montenegro implemented a radical fiscal reform: the minimum pension was increased from just under €300 to €450, while the minimum net wage rose from €450 to €600 and €800 per month, depending on the level of qualifications. At the same time, the pension contribution rate was halved from 20.5% to 10% of gross wages. In this paper, we argue that, contrary to the government’s claims, the reform will undermine the stability of public finances and lead to an increase in the budget deficit. We also explain that the potential to improve the competitiveness of the domestic economy will be limited due to the sharp increase in the minimum wage, while the significant rise in the minimum pension will pose risks to the sustainability of the pension system and social protection in the years to come. We point out that the weaknesses and shortcomings of the reform – such as the lack of adequate compensatory measures to increase budget revenues – were visible ex-ante in the Government’s Fiscal Strategy. However, the absence of an independent Fiscal Council in Montenegro facilitated the adoption of this controversial reform. KLJUČNE REČI: BUDŽETSKI DEFICIT, PORESKA REFORMA, PENZIJSKI SISTEM KEYWORDS: Budget Deficit, Tax Reform, Pension System 1552100 978-86-403-1885-3 2026-03-17T10:34:10.485Z 44 no 46 Nikola Altiparmakov Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 0000-0001-6955-5395 Snežana Ugrinov person application/pdf 456391 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:38297 no yes 18 70 92000004 11A03 Tehnološki, demografski i institucionalni trendovi i privredni razvoj 35 46 Beograd : Ekonomski fakultet 2025