o:37651 Cross-country determinants of COVID19 mortality and the manipulation of death data in autocratic regimes en Abstract In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the official COVID19 mortality rate and the excess mortality rate during the COVID19 pandemic, as well as the factors that influenced the relative difference between these two rates. The analysis was carried out using a combination of monthly and annual data for 72 countries. From panel model estimates, we find that a lower rate of excess mortality was achieved in countries that applied stricter epidemiological measures and had a higher vaccination rate, a better health system, better institutions, a younger population, and a higher degree of democracy. The equations for the official mortality rate from COVID19 contain several theoretically unexpected results, raising doubts about the reliability of official data. The relative difference between the excess mortality rate and the official COVID19 mortality rate is greater in countries with a lower degree of democracy and less media freedom, which leads to the conclusion that autocratic regimes may have manipulated the official mortality data on COVID19, while part of this difference can be explained by a lower level of development, weaker institutions, a weaker health system, or a milder reaction of health policy during the pandemic. Econometric results suggest that the excess mortality rate is a more comprehensive and reliable indicator of the success of countries in mitigating the health consequences of the pandemic than official data on COVID19 mortality because it is less susceptible to political manipulation by autocratic polities. Keywords: COVID19, Mortality rate, Data manipulation, Panel model 1552099 10.1007/s10663-025-09660-4 1552101 0340-8744 2026-01-28T06:36:02.598Z 44 no 46 Aleksandra Nojković Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 0000-0002-6330-5587 Milojko Arsić Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 0000-0001-9314-4174 Emilija Milošević Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 0000-0001-8980-3608 application/pdf 1429736 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:37651 no yes 1 70 92000001 11A03 Empirica 52 4 839 862 2025