o:37254 THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OIL PRICES ON FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA en A B S T R A C T The purpose of the paper is to investigate the impact of crude oil prices and domestic macroeconomic uncertainty on food prices in Serbia over the period 2007-2022. The methodological framework is based on cointegration analysis and the structural vector autoregressive model. The empirical results indicate significant and positive longterm effects of uncertainty and oil prices on food prices. Over a one-year horizon, about one-third of the fluctuations in food prices can be attributed to the variability of shocks in uncertainty and oil prices, while their relative influence is slightly more than half after two years. The impact of uncertainty on food price variability peaks within six months, after which its influence diminishes. In contrast, the impact of oil prices gradually increases and becomes the dominant factor in the variability of food prices after a year and a half. Keywords: food prices, macroeconomic uncertainty, oil prices, cointegration analysis, SVAR model 1552099 10.59267/ekoPolj2501271M 1552101 0352-3462 2025-12-05T14:32:41.884Z 44 no 46 Zorica Mladenović Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 0000-0003-1579-4205 Emilija Milošević Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 0000-0001-8980-3608 application/pdf 631181 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:37254 no yes 21 70 92000001 11A03 Economics of agriculture 72 1 271 288 2025