KINA: INVESTICIONI MODEL RAZVOJA I POTENCIJALNA DUŽNIČKA KRIZA Radonjić, Ognjen Izazovi globalizacije u svetu neizvesnosti : zbornik radova http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceProceedings https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:32752 srp 2023 application/pdf 1317255 bytes KLJUČNE REČI: PRIVREDNI RAST, ŠTEDNJA, INVESTICIJE, TEKUĆI RAČUN, DUŽNIČKA KRIZA KEYWORDS: ECONOMIC GROWTH, SAVINGS, INVESTMENTS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DEBT CRISIS Apstrakt: Nakon četiri decenije reformi, danas je Kina najveća ekonomija na svetu, industrijska sila i izvoznik. Jedna od ključnih karkateristika modela transformacije, zajednička sa azijskim ekonomijama koje su se dinamično razvile u posleratnom periodu poput Japana, Južne Koreje i Tajvana, je model razvoja zasnovan na masivnim, državno alociranim, investicijama. Ovaj mehanizam se zasniva na finansijskoj represiji i najvećoj svetskoj štednji koja za posledicu ima kumulativne suficite trgovinskog bilansa i tekućeg računa. Nakon Globalne finansijske krize 2008-2009. i posledičnog pada tražnje, pre svega u Americi i Evropi, Kina se, radi održavanja visoke stope rasta, umesto za rast potrošačke, opredelila za još dinamičniji rast investicione tražnje. Posledično, došlo je do preteranog investiranja, smanjenja investicione efikasnosti i naduvavanja špekulativnog balona na tržištu nekretnina. Pošto je svetska tražnja smanjena i pošto je smanjena efikasnost kineskih investicija, došlo je do dinamičnog rasta zaduživanja kineskog korporativnog sektora, lokalnih organa vlasti i naposletku gomilanja nenaplativih potraživanja u državnom bankarskom sektoru. Pitanje koje se postavlja je da li će Kina nastaviti sa ovim modelom razvoja i potencijalno upasti u dužničku krizu što će se negativno odraziti na njen, pa samim tim i svetski privredni rast. Abstract: After four decades of reforms, China is the world’s largest economy, industrial power and exporter. One of the key characteristics of the Chinese transformation model, shared with Asian economies that developed dynamically in the post-war period, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, is a development model based on massive, state-allocated investments. This mechanism is based on financial repression and the world’s largest savings, resulting in cumulative trade balance and current account surpluses. After the eruption of the Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the resulting drop in aggregate demand, primarily in America and Europe, instead of household consumption growth, China opted for an even more dynamic growth in investment demand. As a result, there was an excessive investment, a decrease in investment efficiency and the inflation of a speculative bubble in the real estate market. Since world aggregate demand and China’s efficiency of investments decreased, there has been a dynamic growth in domestic borrowing by the corporate sector, local authorities and finally the accumulation of bad debts in the state owned banking sector. The question that arises is whether China will continue with this model of development and potentially fall into a debt crisis, which will harm its, and therefore world’s economic growth.