o:32621 Modeling and Forecasting CPI in Serbia Using the SARIMA Model en Abstract: To develop the most appropriate economic strategies in a country, policymakers need to have a reliable forecast of the rate of inflation. This is achieved is by using the appropriate model that possesses high predictive accuracy. This paper analyzes the efficacy of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to anticipate the CPI rates in Serbia. The model is developed using the monthly CPI (2010=100) in Serbia in the period 1995- first half of 2022 obtained from the International Monetary Fund. The paper aims to demonstrate the importance of modeling seasonal series, the structure of the SARIMA model, and possibilities of application in the field of economics, specifically related to the analysis of CPI, but also the importance of seasonal influences in general. The qualities, as well as shortcomings of the model, serve to provide breadth in the observation of economic phenomena. Keywords: time series modeling, seasonality, CPI, forecasting, SARIMA 1552100 978-961-7124-14-9 1552099 10.4335/2023.3.29 2024-01-30T09:11:03.570Z 44 no 46 Katarina Nikolić Dragana Radojičić Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 0000-0001-7850-2623 application/pdf 1029864 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:32621 no yes 17 70 92000004 11A03 Contemporary Financial Management 583 605 2023