o:32396 MEĐUNARODNI LIBERALNI POREDAK I GLOBALIZACIJA U DVADESET PRVOM VEKU: UTICAJ ŠOKOVA NA ANTIGLOBALIZAM I DEGLOBALIZACIJU sr Apstrakt: Rad analizira najvažnije šokove koji su podstakli antiglobalizam i procese deglobalizacije, ugrozivši dominantni međunarodni liberalni poredak u prvim decenijama XXI veka. Procesi deglobalizacije prisutni su još od Velike recesije (2007-09) koja se može smatrati i prvim značajnijim šokom u XXI veku. Nakon nje je došlo do uspona antiglobalizma tokom druge decenije XXI veka tokom koje je beležen slabiji ekonomski rast, ali i jače protivurečnosti raspodele dohotka i bogatstva i nezadovoljstva srednje i niže klase u razvijenim ekonomijama. Glavni protagonista antiglobalstičkih procesa u ovoj deceniji bio je američki predsednik Donald Tramp koji je iskoristio nezadovoljstvo dela američkih birača sopstevnom ekonomskom pozicijom da dovede u pitanje globalni ekonomski poredak i promoviše protekcionizam slabeći globalne institucije. Trampova politika („trampizam“) nije bila jedini faktor antiglobalističkih porcesa, političke snage i politički procesi i u drugim zemljama (razvijenim i post-tranzicionim) takođe su bili značajni (bregzit i uspon stabilokrata u post-tranzicionim zemljama). Novi šok globalizacija je doživela tokom pandemije COVID-19, ne samo zbog objektivnih razloga uticaja na globalnu proizvodnju, snabdevanje i trgovinu, već i zbog novog uspona anti-sistemskih snaga i pokreta koji su za ekonomske teškoće okrivili globalizaciju, kao i međunarodni liberalni poredak. Poslednji šok koji je i najjače uzdrmao globalni ekonomski poredak je vojna intervencija Rusije u Ukrajini koja još uvek traje. Pored ostalih posledica ovaj ratni sukob nametnuo je pitanje samog opstanka međunarodnog liberalnog poretka koji je dominantan od okončanja Hladnog rata. Aktuelizovana je transformacija globalnog ekonomskog sistema ali i pitanje da li će doći do reglobalizacije ili će se globalna ekonomija podeliti po političkim osnovama demokartije i autokratije. Rad će u kontekstu navedenih šokova razmotriti ključne protivurečnosti, ali i prednosti globalizacije i međunarodnog liberalnog poretka, sa ciljem da se analizira da li su unutrašnji faktori globalizacije i međunarodnog ekonomskog poretka (ekonomski i društveni) doveli do njihove krize, u većoj meri nego što su to sami šokovi generisali. Abstract: The most significant shocks that led to anti-globalism and deglobalization movements and threatened the predominately liberal international order in the first decades of the twenty-first century are examined in this paper. Deglobalization processes have existed since the Great Recession of 2007–2009, which is seen as the first major shock of the twenty-first century. During the second decade of the twenty-first century, which saw weaker economic growth as well as worsening disparities in the distribution of income and wealth and discontent among the middle and lower classes in advanced economies, anti-globalism began to gain ground. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, was the leading proponent of anti-globalization movements in this decade. He utilized American voters’ discontent with their own economic situation to call into question the world economic system and advance protectionism by undermining international institutions. Trump’s policies (or “Trumpism”) were not the only causes of anti-globalization movements; political forces and political processes in both developed and post-transition countries (such as Brexit and the stabilocrats) were also important. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a new shock to globalization, which was brought on by anti-systemic forces and movements that blamed globalization and the international liberal order for economic problems, in addition to the obvious effects on global production, supply, and trade. The most recent shock that seriously rocked the world economy was Russia’s ongoing military incursion in Ukraine. Among its other effects, this clash prompted debate over the very future of the liberal international order that had predominated since the Cold War. The global economic system’s evolution and the debate over whether globalization will resume or if democracy and autocracy would lead to divisions in the world’s political systems were both updated. The paper will examine the main contradictions, as well as the benefits, of globalization and the international liberal order in the context of the aforementioned shocks with the goal of determining whether these internal (economic and social) factors contributed more to their crisis than the shocks themselves did. Ključne reči: GLOBALIZACIJA, MEĐUNARODNI LIBERALNI POREDAK, DEGLOBALIZACIJA, ANTIGLOBALIZAM. KEYWORDS: GLOBALIZATION, INTERNATIONAL LIBERAL ORDER, DEGLOBALIZATION, ANTI-GLOBALISM. 1552100 978-86-403-1816-7 2024-01-18T12:50:16.428Z 44 no 46 Aleksandra Praščević Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 0000-0003-1637-515X application/pdf 173295 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:32396 no yes 18 70 92000004 11A03 Izazovi globalizacije u svetu neizvesnosti : zbornik radova 13 40 2023