info:eu-repo/semantics/article All rights reserved application/pdf 1608625 bytes KEYWORDS Fiscal debt uncertainty; emerging European economies; GARCH models; panel estimation Arsić, Milojko Mladenović, Zorica Nojković, Aleksandra Debt Uncertainty and Economic Growth in Emerging European Economies : Some Empirical Evidence 2021 Emerging markets finance and trade 57(12) https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:29463 doi:10.1080/1540496X.2019.1700364 ISSN: 1540-496X eng ABSTRACT: This study investigates the effects of public debt uncertainty on economic growth in 10 emerging European economies over 2000–2015 period. Public debt uncertainty reflects fiscal policy volatility and macroeconomic instability. It also creates uncer- tainty about the characteristics of future fiscal policy, which further causes the rise of uncertainty in household and busi- ness incomes. Increasing the risk of future incomes leads to the reduction of household consumption and corporate invest- ments, which negatively influences economic growth. An empirical analysis of public debt uncertainty impact on eco- nomic growth is performed by time series and panel data approaches based on quarterly data. Our key result indicates the significant detrimental effect public debt uncertainty has had on the GDP growth in emerging European economies, especially during the Great Recession episode that started in 2008. Robustness of our econometric findings is confirmed by different estimation methods and model specifications. Financial support from the The Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia [Milojko Arsić - grant 179005, Zorica Mladenović - grants 179005 and 179062, and Aleksandra Nojković - grants 179005 and 179065].