o:29457 Uptake of Health Care Services by Refugees Modelling a Country Response to a Western Balkan Refugee Crisis en Abstract: Planning and adjusting health capacities to meet the needs of refugees is a constant issue for transit and destination countries following the 2015/2016 Western Balkans refugee crisis. Understanding this crisis is important for taking the right steps in the future. The study informs about the prediction of the refugees’ health needs and demands for services in correspondence to political decision-making during 2015/2016 Western Balkan Refugee Crisis. Time series analysis, linear regression, and correlation analyses modelled the weekly flux of arrivals of more than half a million refugees to Serbia and the European Union, changes in the utilization of health care services, and disease diagnoses. With strategic planning, in the event of a recurrence of the refugee crises, the demand for health care services in the transit country could increase by 63 (95% CI: 21–105) for every additional 1000 refugees. Keywords: refugees; crises intervention; needs assessment; delivery of health care; disaster planning; ARIMA Modelling 1552099 10.3390/healthcare8040560 1552101 2227-9032 2023-05-15T12:14:48.057Z 44 no 46 Milena Santrić-Milićević Milena Vasić person Vladimir Vasić Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 12793703 0000-0001-9694-8071 Mirjana Živković-Šulović person Dragana Ćirović person Milan Lacković person Nikolina Bošković person application/pdf 2317961 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:29457 no yes 16 70 1552253 11A03 Healthcare 8 4 560 2020