https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:29457 doi:10.3390/healthcare8040560 ISSN: 2227-9032 2020 Healthcare 8(4) Abstract: Planning and adjusting health capacities to meet the needs of refugees is a constant issue for transit and destination countries following the 2015/2016 Western Balkans refugee crisis. Understanding this crisis is important for taking the right steps in the future. The study informs about the prediction of the refugees’ health needs and demands for services in correspondence to political decision-making during 2015/2016 Western Balkan Refugee Crisis. Time series analysis, linear regression, and correlation analyses modelled the weekly flux of arrivals of more than half a million refugees to Serbia and the European Union, changes in the utilization of health care services, and disease diagnoses. With strategic planning, in the event of a recurrence of the refugee crises, the demand for health care services in the transit country could increase by 63 (95% CI: 21–105) for every additional 1000 refugees. eng Keywords: refugees; crises intervention; needs assessment; delivery of health care; disaster planning; ARIMA Modelling info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode application/pdf 2317961 bytes Uptake of Health Care Services by Refugees : Modelling a Country Response to a Western Balkan Refugee Crisis Santrić-Milićević, Milena Vasić, Milena Vasić, Vladimir Živković-Šulović, Mirjana Ćirović, Dragana Lacković, Milan Bošković, Nikolina