o:29354 New EU member states’ emigration Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates en Abstract: Unlike the old member states that compensate the negative net birth rate with immigration, the new EU member states face both migrational and natural demographic decline. In the last decade, poor level of economic development as well as the accession to the EU encouraged net emigration from the new member states. Panel data for the 12 new member states for the 2007 - 2016 period were used to determine how the length of membership and GDP per capita trailing behind the EU average affect the proportion of the net emigration. It has been shown that on average a country has to reach at least 85 percent of the average EU GDP p.c. (measured in PPS) to prevent emigration, but this level increases with each year of membership by 1.37 percentage points. Keywords: emigration; depopulation; economic development; new EU member states; old EU member states 1552099 10.2478/zireb-2020-0017 1552101 1331-5609 2023-05-11T15:27:01.174Z 44 no 46 Iva Vuksanović Herceg Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 13836391 0000-0002-5892-7648 Tomislav Herceg person Lorena Škuflić person application/pdf 511891 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:29354 no yes 18 70 92000001 11A03 Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business 23 2 129 140 2020