o:29045 Značaj i primena metode scenarija kao sredstva planiranja u obrazovanju Th e Signifi cance and Application of Scenario Modelling as the Means of Planning in Education sr Apstrakt: Rast neizvesnosti i kompleksnosti, sa sve većim brojem učesnika, oblikuju umnogome obrazovne sisteme gotovo svih zemalja. Ipak, obrazovanje je i dalje determisano, u najvećem broju slučajeva, kratkoročnim odlukama kreatora politika obrazovanja. Zanemarivanje dugog roka može biti problematično iz razloga nemogućnosti obrazovnih sistema da odgovore na brze i dramatične promene, koje će verovatno u budućnosti biti još izraženije. S tim u vezi, upotreba metode scenarija u oblasti obrazovanja može doprineti uvažavanju i prilagođavanju promenama koje se odvijaju. Predmet ovog rada su metod scenarija per se i njegova primena u oblasti obrazovanja. Takva analiza može biti od pomoći kreatorima obrazovnih politika imajući u vidu i neizvesnost i kompleksnost sistema u kojima obrazovanje funkcioniše, te kontinuiranu potrebu za sprovođenjem reformi obrazovnih sistema. Osnovni cilj rada jeste da ukaže na razvoj i značaj tog metoda kao sredstva planiranja i na mogućnosti njegove primene u oblasti obrazovanja. Abstract: Almost all countries’ educational systems are to a significant degree shaped by an increased uncertainty and complexity, with an ever-growing number of participants. Nevertheless, in most cases, education is still determined by short-term decisions made by policymakers. Neglecting the longer term can be problematic due to the educational systems’ inability to respond to swift and dramatic changes which are likely to be even more prominent in the future. With regard to this, using scenario modelling in the field of education can contribute to adopting and adapting to the ongoing changes. The topic of this paper is the scenario methodology per se and its application to the field of education. This analytical approach can be of use to educational policymakers, bearing in mind the uncertainty and complexity of the systems in which education works, and the continuing need for conducting educational reforms. The primary goal of this paper is to point to the development and the significance of this methodology as a means of planning, and the potential of its application to the field of education. Rad je nastao u okviru projekta Ekonomskog fakuleta u Beogradu Uloga države u novom modelu rasta privrede Srbije (179065), koji finansira Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije. Ključne reči: promene, scenario, planiranje, obrazovanje Key words: change, scenario, planning, education. 1552099 10.5937/ANDSTUD1801105V 1552101 0354-5415 2023-05-04T13:53:06.558Z 44 no 46 Nemanja Vuksanović Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 52633865 0000-0002-8522-7022 application/pdf 123832 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:29045 no yes 1 70 92000002 11A03 Andragoške studije 1 105 121 2018