Apstrakt: Opadajuće stope rasta svetske tr- govine i bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) vrše pritisak na izvoz manjih zemalja. Globalna ekonomska kriza iz 2008. godine donela je glo- balnu recesiju svetske privrede 2009. godine. Ova duboka recesije ima dugoročne posledice, pre svega na svetsku trgovinu. Dinamika svet- ske trgovine nije uspela da dosegne pretkrizni nivo, tako da je trend njenog rasta posle krize ispod pretkriznog trendnog nivoa. Kriza jav- nog duga Evrozone 2011-2012. dovela je do pogoršanja performansi spoljne trgovine ove integracije. Mada se smatra da je ova kriza sa- vladana, tokom 2019. godine je došlo do daljeg malaksavanja trgovine evrozone. Usporavanje uvozne tražnje evrozone preti da umanji izvoz zemalja kojima je ona glavno izvozno tržište. Sa ovim rizikom se suočava i Srbija, jer su članice evrozone njeni glavni trgovinski par- tneri. Eskalacija trgovinskog sukoba između SAD i Kine, kao i između razvijenih zemalja, oličena u rastu carinskih stopa, jedan je od na- glašenih faktora usporavanja svetske trgovine. Neizvesnosti koje se formiraju zbog carinske eskalacije povećavaju investicionu opreznost kompanija, smanjujući time i uvoznu tražnju. Zahvaljujući prilivu stranih direktnih investi- cija (SDI), delovi i komponente su značajna stavka u robnom izvozu Srbije. Na taj način Srbija se ukuljučuje u globalne lance isporuka. Stoga smanjivanje uvozne tražnje ovih proi- zvoda i usporavanje industrijske proizvodnje u evrozoni nosi rizik smanjivanja našeg robnog izvoza. Koeficijent elastičnosti robnog izvo- za Srbije u odnosu na bruto domaći proizvod (BDP) Evropske unije (EU) opao je sa 5% iz perioda pre 2009. na 1,3% u razdoblju posle 2009. godine. Pad ovog pokazatelja ukazuje da se poslednjih godina pogoršavaju perspektive robnog izvoza na tržište EU. Dalje tendencije u velikoj meri će zavisiti od toga da li će doći do smirivanja trgovinskih tenzija u svetu ili do dalje carinske eskalacije. Abstract: The declining growth rates of world trade and gross domestic product (GDP) are putting pressure on smaller countries‘ exports. The global economic crisis of 2008 brought about a global slowdown in 2009. This deep recession has long-term consequences, pri- marily on world trade. The dynamics of world trade has not reached the pre-crisis level, so its post-crisis growth trend is below the pre-crisis trend level. The Eurozone Sovereig debt crisis 2011-2012 has led to a deteriora- tion in the foreign trade performance of this integration. Although this crisis is considered to have been overcome, during 2019 there was a further decline in world trade. A slowdown in Eurozone‘s import demand is threatening to reduce exports of countries for which it is a major export market. Serbia is also facing this risk, as Eurozone members are its main trad- ing partners. The escalation of trade conflict between the US and China, as well as between developed countries, embodied in rising tariff rates, is one of the prominent factors behind the slowdown in world trade. The tariff escalation uncertainties increase the investment pru- dence of companies, thereby reducing import demand. Due to the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), parts and components are a significant item in Serbia‘s commodity exports. The uncertainties that arising from the tariff escalation increase the prudence investment of companies, thus reducing the import demand. Due to the inflow of FDI, parts and components are a significant item in Serbia‘s merchadise exports. In this way, Serbia is joining the glob- al supply chains. Therefore, reducing the im- port demand for these products and slowing in- dustrial production in the Eurozone carries the risk of reducing our merchandise exports. The coefficient of elasticity of Serbian merchandise exports to the European Union (EU)‘s gross domestic product (GDP) decreased from 5% from the period before 2009 to 1.3% in the pe - riod after 2009. The decline in this indicator suggests that the prospects of merchandise ex- ports to the EU market have been worsening in recent years. Further tendencies will largely depend on whether world trade tensions will reduce or further tariff escalation will occur. Rad je deo istraživanja na projektu 179065 Ministarstva prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije „Uloga države u novom modelu rasta privrede Srbije“. Еkonomska politika Srbije u 2020. godini application/pdf 427326 bytes Kovačević, Radovan Uticaj malaksavanje svetske trgovine na robni izvoz Srbije info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceProceedings https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28823 All rights reserved 2020 KLJUČNE REČI: IZVOZ I UVOZ ROBE, PRIVREDNI RAST, EVROPSKA UNIJA, EVROZONA, DOHODNA ELASTIČNOST IZVOZA, INDEKS EKONOMSKE SLOŽENO- STI KEYWORDS: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EUROPEAN UNION, EUROZONE, INCOME ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS, ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX srp