o:28794 Uticaj fiskalne i monetarne ekspanzije na kretanje BDP i inflacije u periodu pandemije COVID 19 The influence of fiscal and monetary expansion on GDP and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic sr Apstrakt: Na osnovu uzorka od preko 100 zemalja istražuje se uticaj fi skalne i monetarne ekspanzije na kretanje BDP i infl acije tokom ekonomske krize izazvane pandemijom COVID-19. Analiza je zasnovana na uporednim godišnjim podacima u periodu 2019-2021. godina. Ekonometrijske ocene sadrže indicije da su manji pad BDP u 2020. i snažniji oporavak u 2021. godini imale zemlje koje su primenile snažnije fi skalne stimulanse, dok su dokazi o uticaju monetarne politike na razlike u stopama rasta BDP po zemljama slabi. Na razlike u kretanju BDP po zemljama u periodu pandemije uticale su razlike u strukturi privrede, kao i razlike u rastu BDP u pretkriznoj godini. Zemlje koje su primenile ekspanzivniju monetarnu i fi skalnu politiku imale su veću infl aciju u 2021. godini. Na osnovu ekonometrijskih rezultata sledi da su rekordna fi skalna i monetarna ekspanzija u periodu pandemije bile uspešne u sprečavanju pada BDP i omogućavanju njegovog brzog oporavka, ali i da su doprinele relativno velikom povećanju infl acije. Dobijeni rezultati sugerišu da će za obuzdavanje infl acije biti potrebno povećanje restriktivnosti monetarne i fi skalne politike, mada će takva politika usporiti rast BDP u narednim godinama i otežati servisiranje javnih i privatnih dugova. Abstract: Based on a sample of over 100 countries, the impact of fi scal and monetary expansion on GDP and infl ation during the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is being investigated. The analysis is based on cross-section annual data for the period 2019-2021. years. Econome- tric estimates suggest that countries that applied stronger fi scal stimulus had a smaller decline in GDP in 2020 and a stronger recovery in 2021, while evidence of the impact of monetary policy on diff erences in GDP growth rates by country is weak. Diff erences in GDP trends by country during the pandemic period were infl uenced by diff erences in the structure of the economy, as well as diff erences in GDP growth in the pre-crisis year. Countries that have implemented more expansive monetary and fi scal policies had higher infl ation in 2021. Based on econometric results, it follows that record fi scal and monetary expansion during the pandemic period was successful in preventing the fall in GDP and enabling its rapid recovery, but also that they contributed to a relatively large increase in infl ation. The results suggest that curbing infl ation will require increasing the restrictiveness of monetary and fi scal policy, although such a policy will slow GDP growth in the coming years and make it more diffi cult to service public and private debts. KLJUČNE REČI: PANDEMIJA, FISKALNA I MONETARNA POLITIKA, BDP, INFLACIJA. KEYWORDS: PANDEMIC, FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY, GDP, INFLATION 1552100 978-86-403-1733-7 2023-04-13T10:46:22.602Z 44 no 46 Milojko Arsić Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 13833319 0000-0001-9314-4174 Aleksandra Nojković Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 12863591 0000-0002-6330-5587 Emilija Maksimović Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet person 74262793 0000-0001-8980-3608 application/pdf 590895 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28794 no yes 1 70 92000004 11A03 Ekonomska politika u Srbiji i svetu u uslovima nezavršene pandemije, rastućih deficita budžeta, puzajuće inflacije i štampanja novca 13 30 2022