application/pdf 464086 bytes Racionalni cenovni baloni tokom istorije i pogled tradicionalnih i bihevioralnih finansija na njih Ekonomske ideje i praksa(29) srp All rights reserved Draganac, Dragana 2018 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28751 ISSN: 2217-6217 KLJUČNE REČI: RACIONALNI CENOVNI BALONI, TRADICIONALNE FINANSIJE, BIHEVIORALNE FINANSIJE, HIPOTEZA O EFIKASNOSTI TRŽIŠTA KEY WORDS: RATIONAL PRICE BUBBLES, TRADITIONAL FINANCE, BEHAVIORAL FINANCE, EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS APSTRAKT: Nagli rast cena sredstva, često znatno iznad njegove fundamentalne vrednosti, usled samoispunjavajućih očekivanja o visokim prinosima sredstva u budućnosti, poznat je pod nazivom racionalni cenovni balon. Visoke cene opstaju izvestan period, dok traje eufo- rija, nakon čega, kad investitori otkriju da se samoispunjavajuća očekivanja o prinosima nisu ostvarila, sledi masovna panična prodaja sredstva, drastičan pad cene i pucanje cenovnog balona. Tokom istorije, često je pucanje cenovnih balona bilo praćeno ozbiljnim finansijskim krizama, koje su se, neretko, širile sa finansijskog na realni sektor, a usled globalizacije i internacionalizacije, sa jednog kraja sveta na drugi. Ozbiljnost posledica pucanja cenovnih balona, koji su praćene finansijskim i realnim krizama, čini ovu temu važnom za istraživanje. Država često interveniše unošenjem novca u privredni sistem, što vodi rastu javnog duga, čije posledice snose svi. U radu su prikazana različita objašnjenja racionalnih cenovnih balona od strane tradicio- nalnih i bihevioralnih finansija. Iako ova tema postaje aktuelnija sa pojavom i razvojem bihevioralnih finansija, i tradicionalne finansije su se, u manjoj meri, bavile pitanjem cenovnih balona. Racionalne cenovne balone objašnjavaju različitim faktorima, poput finansijske nestabilnosti i prevelike dostupnosti kredita, fundamentalne neizvesnosti budućih prinosa i želje investitora za brzim sticanjem novca. Bihevioralna objašnjenja cenovnih balona obuhvataju samoispunjavajuća očekivanja, investitorov osećaj, preterani optimizam, višak samopouzdanja, manipulaciju uverenjima, informacione kaskade, i sl. Cilj rada je identifikovanje zajedničkih faktora koji uzrokuju racionalne cenovne balone, kako bi se na iste delovalo merama ekonomske politike, što bi uslovilo ređu pojavu cenov- nih balona i blaže posledice njihovog pucanja. ABSTRACT: An abnormal rise in asset prices, often significantly above its fundamental value, due to self-fulfilling expectations about high future returns is known as rational price bubble. High prices are present for some time of euphoria, after which some investors discover that self-fulfilling expectations about returns have not been realized, massive and panic asset selling occurs, as well as drastic fall in price and bubble’s burst. During history the burst of bubbles were often followed by serious financial crises which were often spread from financial to real sector and due to globalization and internationalization from one part of the world to another. The severity of consequences of price bubble’s burst followed by financial and real crises make this topic important for research. The government often intervenes by injecting money into economy, which causes a rise in public debt whose consequences everyone bears. Different explanations of rational prices bubbles from the points of view of both tradi- tional and behavioral finance are given in the paper. Although this topic is becoming more present in literature with the emergence and development of behavioral finance, traditional finance also dealt with the price bubbles, although to the less extent. Rational price bubbles are explained by series of different factors such as financial instability and oversized availability of credits, fundamental uncertainty about future returns and the investors’ desire of fast earning of money. Behavioral explanations of rational price bubbles include self-fulfilling expectations, investor sentiment, excessive optimism, over- confidence, belief manipulation, informational cascades, etc. The goal of the paper is to identify mutual factors which cause the emergence of rational price bubbles with the aim to affect them by economic policy measures in order to decrease the frequency of rational price bubbles and to make their consequences less severe. info:eu-repo/semantics/article