o:28729 Neuravnoteženost deviznog kursa kao potencijali okidač protekcionističke trgovinske politike Exchange rate misalignment as a potential trigger of protectionist trade policy sr APSTRAKT: Opasnost od potencijalnog oživljavanja protekcionizma nakon dugogodišnjih napora u cilju liberalizacije međunarodne trgovine intenzivirala je debate o uticaju deviznih kurseva na spoljnotrgovinsku politiku. Mogućnost prelivanja politike deviznog kursa na spoljnotrgovin- sku politiku, kao i mogućnost uticaja kretanja nivoa deviznog kursa na jačanje protekcioni- stičke aktivnosti implicira neophodnost analiziranja neuravnoteženosti kursa. U tom smislu, cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na važnost praćenja odstupanja deviznog kursa od ravnotežnog nivoa, kao i da ispita stepen neuravnoteženosti kursa izabranih zemalja centralne, istočne i jugoistočne Evrope, kako bi se ukazalo na potencijalno postojanje opasnosti od jačanja protekcionizma u ovim zemljama. Dobijeni rezultati, primenom dva pristupa, pokazuju da neuravnoteženost kursa postoji, ali da smer i stepen neuravnoteženosti varira u zavisno- sti od izabranog metoda izračunavanja. Kretanje izabranih pokazatelja neuravnoteženosti ukazuje na smanjivanje podsticaja za jačanje protekcionističke aktivnosti, koja bi se nega- tivno odrazila na region. ABSTRACT: The threat of a potential revival of protectionism after many years of effort in order to libe- ralize international trade, intensified the debate on the impact of exchange rates on trade policy. The possibility of spillover of the exchange rate policy into a trade policy, as well as the possibility of impact of the movement of the exchange rate level on the strengthening of protectionist activities implies the necessity of analyzing the exchange rate misalignment. Having previously in mind, the aim of the paper is to shed light on the importance of moni- toring the deviation of the exchange rate from the equilibrium level, as well as to examine the degree of exchange rate misalignment in the selected countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, in order to point out the potential threat of strengthening protectioni- sm in this group of countries. The results obtained, using two approaches, show that there is exchange rate misalignment, but that the direction and degree of misalignment vary de- pending on the implemented method. The movement of selected misalignment measures indicates a decrease in the incentive for the strengthening of protectionist activities, which would negatively affect the region. KLJUČNE REČI: NEURAVNOTEŽENOST DEVIZNOG KURSA, POTCENJENOST VALUTE, PRECENJENOST VALUTE, PROTEKCIONIZAM KEYWORDS: MISALIGNMENT, UNDERVALUATION, OVERVALUATION, PROTECTIONISM 1552101 2217-6217 2023-04-10T12:12:00.966Z 44 no 46 Aleksandra Đorđević Zorić Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 32403815 0000-0001-5407-525X application/pdf 721677 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28729 no yes 1 70 92000001 11A03 Ekonomske ideje i praksa 34 47 60 2019