o:28506 East-West migration in Europe can Serbia withstand the wind gusts? en Abstract: Rising demand for skilled workers in Western Europe absorbs the most valuable human capital from CEE, thus endangering their economic prospects. The estimated econometric model indicates that the poorly governed countries the ones characterized by a high level of corruption, weak rule of law, as well as low-quality public services (healthcare, education, etc.) - are most affected by emigration. Moreover, emigration is higher in the CEE countries that have easier access to the European labour market, better-educated population and lower living standards. According to the model, the migration of the young and qualified people from Serbia is expected to additionally increase in the next five years, by 20-30%, despite the relatively high GDP growth forecast of 4%. However, if in the following years Serbia undertakes necessary reforms and reaches the institutional standards that are common in CEE, the growing trend could be reversed, lowering emigrations by 10-15% compared to the current level. Wage increase, even an extreme one, does not play a key role in containing migration from Serbia Keywords: emigration; institutions; convergence; wages; education; demographics; Serbia 1552099 5937/EKOPRE2002035P 1552101 0353-443X 2023-03-30T16:51:44.329Z 44 no 46 Pavle Petrović Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 12244327 Danko Brčerević person Stefan Šaranović person application/pdf 489665 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28506 no yes 1 70 92000001 11A03 Ekonomika preduzeća 68 1-2 35 51 2020