o:28386 Odnos uzročnosti između bilansa tekućeg i finansijskog računa zemalja Zapadnog Balkana – slučaj Srbije The causal relationship between current account and financial account balance in Western Balkan countries: The case of Serbia sr en Rezime: Zemlje Zapadnog Balkana (ZB) su registrovale porast deficita tekućeg računa (TR) i neto priliva kapitala u periodu pre izbijanja finansijske krize 2008. godine. Spoljni dug ovih zemalja je porastao. Cilj ovog rada je da istraži uzroč- nost između bilansa TR i finansijskog računa (FR) Srbije. Okvir za empirijsku analizu je vektorski autoregresioni (VAR) model i vektorski model sa korekcijom ravnotežne greške (VEC model). Primenom Johansenovog testa kointegracije utvrđeno je postojanje dugoročne uzročnosti između ove dve varijable. Ocenjeni dugoročni koeficijent uz varijablu FR kao nezavisnu promenljivu pokazuje da porast salda FR Srbije za 1% dovodi do povećanja deficita TR Srbije za 0,58%. Primenom testa Grejndžerove uzročnosti utvrđeno je da postoji uzročnost od FR prema TR, iz čega proističu preporuke za nosioce ekonomske politike. Ovi rezultati ukazuju na potrebu kontinuirane provere održivosti deficita TR Srbije, kao i potrebu nadgledanja nivoa prisustva stranog kapitala u privredi Srbije. Abstract: The Western Balkans (WB) countries registered an increase in the current account (CA) deficit and net capital inflow in the period before the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008. The external debt of these countries has increased. The aim of this paper is to examine the causality relationship between the CA and financial accounts (FA) balance of Serbia. A framework for the empirical analysis is the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we find the existence of a long-run causality relationship between these two variables. The estimated long-run coefficient on the FA variable as an independent variable shows that an increase of Serbia's FA balance by 1% leads to an increase in the CA deficit of Serbia by 0.58%. Applying the Granger causality test, it was found that causality runs from FA to the CA, which implies recommendations for economic policymakers. The finding indicates the need to continuously check the sustainability of the CA deficit of Serbia, as well as to monitor the level of presence of foreign capital in the Serbian economy. Ključne reči: tekući račun, finansijski račun, kointegracija, Grejndžerova uzroč- nost, VAR model, VEC model, Zapadni Balkan, Srbija Keywords: current account; financial account; cointegration; Granger causality; VAR model; VEC model; Western Balkan; Serbia 1552099 10.5937/bankarstvo2004009K 1552101 1451-4354 2023-03-27T12:03:59.877Z 44 no 46 Radovan Kovačević Univerzitet u Beogradu Ekonomski fakultet 13834343 0000-0002-5857-730X application/pdf 365774 https://phaidrabg.bg.ac.rs/o:28386 no yes 15 70 92000001 11A03 Bankarstvo 49 4 9 41 2020